Wisconsin may decide the presidency

By Rob Golub

Wednesday, October 27, 2004 2:04 AM CDT

RACINE COUNTY - The number of battleground states in the presidential election may be narrowing, but Wisconsin stubbornly refuses to give up its on-the-fence status.

Polls from across the country show Wisconsin could be one of the three states that decides whether Sen. John Kerry or President Bush receives the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the White House.

Here is a breakdown of Wisconsin's importance, and the number that suggest our state will be one of the most watched in the country on Tuesday:

Some analysts rate

Wisconsin the third most important state.

Some national media organizations are bolder in their predictions than others. Bolder groups, like Slate.com and the New York Times, say some supposed battleground states - states that polls show could vote for Bush or Kerry - are actually leaning to a particular candidate. This appears to leave the nation with a list of three major battleground states that will decide the election, according to the bold analysis: 1. Florida (27 electoral votes) 2. Ohio (20 electoral votes) 3. Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) Others place Wisconsin in the top five.

USA Today, the BBC, ABC News and other news organizations have longer lists of

battleground states. An analysis of lists published by these groups indicates these are the major battleground states. This analysis reduces Wisconsin's importance to fifth on the list, tied with

Minnesota.

1. Florida (27 electoral votes) 2. Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes) 3. Ohio (20 electoral votes) 4. Michigan (17 electoral votes) 5. Minnesota and Wisconsin (10 electoral votes each) Slate.com suggests Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota are firming up for Kerry. The New York Times analysis agrees that Pennsylvania and Minnesota are leaning Kerry, but Michigan is undecided.

Slate.com reports that battleground states Nevada (5 electoral votes), New Mexico (5), and Iowa (7) are firming up for Bush.

Current polls give Bush a narrow lead in Wisconsin.

An average of different polls taken over the last few days gives Bush a 1.8 percent lead over Kerry, according to realclearpolitics.com. Of course, 1.8 percent is so narrow, it means Wisconsin is too close to call.

For example, a Zogby poll conducted Oct. 22-25 puts the election in Wisconsin at 48 percent for Bush and 46 percent for Kerry. A University of Minnesota poll puts the Wisconsin contest at 48 for Bush, 47 for Kerry, with 2 percent for Ralph Nader and 5 percent undecided.

Those of you in that 5 percent could decide this year's presidential election.

Could Wisconsin really decide the election? Yes.

Let's imagine for the moment that the bold analysis is right and, with Bush and Kerry roughly tied in the electoral college, the only remaining battleground states are Florida, Ohio and Wisconsin. Under that scenario, it's pretty difficult to win the presidency without winning two of the three states.

It takes 270 Electoral College votes to win. Let's just hope we don't have an electoral vote tie, 269 to 269, because then the House of Representatives decides, and that could make the 2000 election look like an easy, sensible process.

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