BY SCOTT BAUER
Associated Press | Posted: Sunday, February 24, 2008 12:00 am
MADISON - Republicans and Democrats alike found things to like about the results of Wisconsin's primary.
Republicans say it shows that the party's base can rally behind John McCain.
Democrats were blown away by the margin of Barack Obama's win and the depth of his support - young and old, black and white, men and women and from all corners of the state.
But both sides agree that the general election is a different beast than the primary. And the winning strategy for a candidate in the primary doesn't necessarily translate into victory in November.
"The nature of the issues will be a bit different," said University of Wisconsin-Madison political science professor Barry Burden. There will be more of a focus on the war in Iraq, and the differences between the two candidates, immigration and health care, he said.
But even with those differences, a lot of what drew people to vote in the primary will remain the same in November, Burden said.
"McCain and Obama are attractive to people because of who they are," he said. "That is going to stick with them."
A lot more will happen in the next nine months that will determine who wins in Wisconsin, said Republican political strategist Mark Graul. He served as state director of President Bush's campaign in 2004.
Obama and Clinton remain locked in a tight contest for the party's nomination, although Obama is on a winning streak. Clinton's campaign is hoping for wins in both Ohio and Texas on March 4 to keep it alive.
Wisconsin was the center of the political world for the week leading up to the primary, but things are expected to calm down until mid- to late-summer when the nominees should be back.
Wisconsin was strongly contested in both 2000 and 2004, when Democrats Al Gore and John Kerry won the state by less than 1 percent.
There's no reason to believe it won't be another tight election in November, Burden and others with ties to the two parties agree.
"I suspect it to be a swing state, a battleground state," Burden said. "It's middle America. It's a place where a lot of the large dynamics of the country play out in smaller ways."
Nearly three-quarters of voters under 25 voted for Obama in the primary, according to exit surveys conducted for The Associated Press and television networks. About one in five voters said they had never voted before, and that group supported Obama by about a 2-to-1 margin.
McCain did well from both men and women, the affluent, the well-educated and those identifying themselves as moderates.
His reputation and history as being a maverick within the Republican Party will serve him well in the general election with Wisconsin voters who tend to like that in their politicians, observers said.
"He'll appeal to that conservative independents which makes up a very important part of the electorate in a statewide election," the Republican strategist Graul said.
When it comes to the passion factor, Obama clearly has the edge, said Mike Wittenwyler, a political consultant who helped run the 1998 campaign of Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold.
"It's going to be interesting to see whether or not John McCain can create a similar passion factor," Wittenwyler said.
About 73 percent of those who voted in the primary did so on the Democratic side, with just 27 percent voting Republican. The difference in vote totals was huge - more than 1.1 million for Democrats versus 410,000 for Republicans.
Graul, a Republican, dismisses that difference chalking it up to the more competitive Democratic race.
"I don't get all nervous about the fact that more people voted in the Democratic primary," he said. "There's no denying that after eight years of a Republican being in the White House there's a lot of enthusiasm on the part of Democrats to get the White House back."
But Burden said the difference, sometimes called an "enthusiasm gap," was so large it can't be dismissed.
"That difference is just too great," he said. "It departs from the patterns we've seen in previous Wisconsin primaries."
The gap was higher in the 2004 primary, but there was no contest at all for Republicans. A majority of primary voters in 1996 and 2000 voted on the Republican side.
Obama won 58 percent to 41 percent over Clinton. McCain beat Huckabee 55 percent to 37 percent.
Obama won big in liberal Dane County, home to UW-Madison, capturing nearly 68 percent of the vote. Milwaukee County, another Democratic stronghold, was the next highest with Obama getting 64 percent. Obama won all but 10 of the state's 72 counties.
"I was surprised at how well he did geographically across the state," Wittenwyler said. "He did well everywhere. … which helps him going into a general election."
McCain won 57 counties, with Ozaukee County providing him the highest margin at 68 percent followed by Milwaukee and Waukesha counties each with about 62 percent.
Wittenwyler said turnout will be key for Republicans.
"McCain will need everyone in the state who got out and voted for George W. Bush in 2004 to do so again in 2008," Wittenwyler said.
Huckabee's relatively strong performance shows that McCain still has work to do with conservative voters especially in rural areas and those who are staunchly anti-abortion, Burden said.
"He's got time to do that," Burden said.
But Graul said McCain's strong win shows he has quickly shored up the Republican base.
"This was his first real test as the de facto nominee," Graul said. "Not only did he do well, he exceeded expectations. And he exceeded expectations with a voting pool that was truly your core base of Republicans. … I think that's a great sign for him in the fall."