By Tom Oates
Madison.com | Posted: Monday, November 24, 2008 12:00 am
NEW ORLEANS - Green Bay Packers coach Mike McCarthy took one look at the mass of mediocrity sitting atop the NFC North Division standings after last week's games and arrived at the same conclusion as everyone else.
With the Packers, Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings tied for first place at 5-5, it was like the first 10 games of the NFL season no longer counted.
"It's really a six-game season," McCarthy said.
Actually, nothing could be further from the truth.
In the NFC North, it has become a one-game season, and that game is not Monday night's matchup between the Packers and New Orleans Saints at the Superdome. No, that game is the Dec. 22 meeting between the Packers and Bears in Chicago.
Unless one of the NFC North's big three really separate themselves from the pack over the next month - unlikely, given how flawed each of the three teams is - then the Packers-Bears game will decide the division's lone representative in the playoffs.
Why is that? From the Packers' standpoint, it's simple.
Since Detroit is 0-11 and hasn't won in Wisconsin since 1991, a victory over the Lions at Lambeau Field in the final game of the season is all but a given. And if you concede that the Packers will win that game, then they would only have to beat the Bears on Dec. 22 to own every tiebreaker advantage in the division. Of course, the same will likely hold true for the Bears should they beat the Packers in that game.
But even if the Packers muddle through their four games between now and then with, say, a 2-2 record, they will probably still be in position to win the division in their final two games. That doesn't mean Monday night's game against the Saints isn't important, it just means it's not a must-win game.
Sure, the Drew Brees-led offense will be a stern test for Green Bay's top-ranked pass defense and the Packers would certainly like to turn last week's 37-3 victory over the Bears into some late-season momentum, but they won't be put at a huge disadvantage if they don't win.
That's because the Bears and Vikings, even though they scored impressive victories Sunday to move a half-game ahead of the Packers, aren't really strong enough to go 5-1 or 6-0 in the final six games, either.
So who is the favorite in McCarthy's six-game season?
The nod here goes to the Packers because they are the most complete team of the three, have the division's best quarterback and usually finish strong.
The Bears are getting solid quarterback play for a change, and that usually makes them a contender, but their defense suddenly looks old and slow and return ace Devin Hester has lost his nerve.
The Vikings are inconsistent at quarterback, will probably lose their starting defensive tackles to NFL suspensions and have the toughest schedule of the three, which means you can probably count them out.
"I'm extremely confident with our whole football team," McCarthy said. "We'll play anybody, anywhere, anytime, anyplace. That doesn't bother me. This football team, every segment of it, we'll take these guys and play."
That'll work as long as the Packers take them to Chicago on Dec. 22.